The way you’ve presented this scenario seems odd. Here Omega isn’t predicting if you would take the money (that would be Omega simulating you before a light flashed, and looking at what you do when the light flashes blue). Instead, Omega is looking at what you would do if the light flashed blue, conditional on you knowing the light flashed red.
I don’t know if this ruins your argument. I think it might? (Take the money if blue, commit to not taking the money if blue if red?) But it at very least is a far less simple scenario.
It's not that Omega is looking at "what you would do conditional on red conditional on blue." It's that, conditional on red, Omega looks at what you counterfactually would do if you had seen blue *instead*. The reason that UDT alone doesn't work is that in the counterfactual world, it's rational to accept on blue, since the odds that you are in a simulation are pretty low. But if you know you're going to be simulated, you now want to deviate from UDT.
A more illuminating version of the problem is the "memory-wipe" variant: if red, Omega knocks you out, resets the room, wipes your memory, and turns on the blue light. If you accept the gift, he kills you. Now this is actually a choice you're going to make. So committing to reject the gift, even if you feel like you have no good reason to do so (since you don't remember the red light) is a good idea. However, this works for weirder reasons than you might think! https://jacktlab.substack.com/p/cyborg-sleeping-beauty-gets-rich
The way you’ve presented this scenario seems odd. Here Omega isn’t predicting if you would take the money (that would be Omega simulating you before a light flashed, and looking at what you do when the light flashes blue). Instead, Omega is looking at what you would do if the light flashed blue, conditional on you knowing the light flashed red.
I don’t know if this ruins your argument. I think it might? (Take the money if blue, commit to not taking the money if blue if red?) But it at very least is a far less simple scenario.
I.e., it’s odd for Omega to care about what you endorse in hindsight as opposed to in foresight.
It's not that Omega is looking at "what you would do conditional on red conditional on blue." It's that, conditional on red, Omega looks at what you counterfactually would do if you had seen blue *instead*. The reason that UDT alone doesn't work is that in the counterfactual world, it's rational to accept on blue, since the odds that you are in a simulation are pretty low. But if you know you're going to be simulated, you now want to deviate from UDT.
A more illuminating version of the problem is the "memory-wipe" variant: if red, Omega knocks you out, resets the room, wipes your memory, and turns on the blue light. If you accept the gift, he kills you. Now this is actually a choice you're going to make. So committing to reject the gift, even if you feel like you have no good reason to do so (since you don't remember the red light) is a good idea. However, this works for weirder reasons than you might think! https://jacktlab.substack.com/p/cyborg-sleeping-beauty-gets-rich